UN official: Afghanistan at a “difficult crossroad” as 6.7 million return and aid falls to a quarter of its 2023 level

Afghanistan stands at a “difficult crossroad” more than five years after the Taliban returned to power, a senior United Nations official said on 6 November, warning that a fragile economy, sweeping restrictions on rights and shrinking aid are undercutting the country’s relative stability and security, according to UN News.

The assessment came from Bruno Lemarquis, the Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan, who is also the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in the country. He spoke to journalists, and the UN’s news service reported his remarks.

Restrictions on women and girls

Lemarquis said women and girls continue to face “severe and sweeping” restrictions that deprive them of many spaces to learn, work and take part in public life. He put the number of girls denied secondary education since 2021 at more than 2.6 million, and said female university enrolment is currently zero. Since September 2025, he added, Afghan women staff have been barred from entering UN premises across the country, and that ban has not been lifted.

Asked by a journalist how the Taliban justify the curbs, Lemarquis described their explanations as a mix of religious extremism and deep historical practices of control and discrimination. He also said higher education overall is in crisis, because the weak economy is leading some families to keep boys out of school as well.

Returnees, opium and funding

Lemarquis said 6.7 million Afghans have returned to the country since 2020, many of them forcibly expelled from neighbouring states that had hosted them, with a large share coming from Pakistan and Iran. Some returnees, he said, had never lived in Afghanistan before. They need documentation, protection and “jobs, jobs, jobs”, he said.

On drugs, he cited a recent UN report which found that opium poppy production rose by 330 per cent during 2025, after a sharp fall following the Taliban’s 2022 ban on cultivation. Farmers are finding ways to hide their crops, he said, and effective eradication would require viable alternative livelihoods.

Humanitarian needs are expected to rise sharply in 2027, Lemarquis said, as returnees, regional instability and a stronger-than-ever El Nino weather pattern threaten food security and access to services. At the same time, he said, aid is shrinking: the humanitarian response reached $2 billion in 2023, halved to $1 billion in 2025 and has so far amounted to $570 million in 2026, roughly a quarter of the 2023 level. He said 40 per cent of primary healthcare facilities, about 700 health posts out of 1,900, are expected to close between 2025 and 2026.

Lemarquis urged the international community not to turn its back on the country, citing an Afghan saying that “What is happening in Afghanistan is not staying in Afghanistan”. The consequences, he said, could extend beyond its borders, affecting regional security, stability and migration pathways.