Kubilius: Russia is closing in on Europe’s defence spending, he warns at the Berlin Security Conference

EU Defence and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warned that Russia is closing in on Europe’s defence spending. Speaking on Tuesday, November 3, on a panel at the Berlin Security Conference, he argued that Moscow is ready to spend next year almost as much as Europeans, if the comparison is made in terms of purchasing power.

“Russian military potential is not diminishing,” Kubilius stressed. “If we count in purchasing power parity terms, Russia is ready to spend almost the same amount as we Europeans next year, around €500 billion.” The sum corresponds to about $559 billion.

The US looks to the Indo-Pacific

The commissioner tied the warning to the need to strengthen the European pillar within NATO, as the American administration shifts its priorities to the Indo-Pacific. Europeans, he added, must invest in the areas where capability gaps exist. “The Americans will pay more and more attention to the Indo-Pacific region. We must keep that in mind when we discuss which capabilities we need to develop here, on the European continent,” he said.

Kubilius repeated that the European Union’s plans to strengthen its defence are not an alternative to NATO. “There is really no competition between the EU and NATO,” he said. “NATO is military power, the EU is economic power. Our task is to combine these two powers into European defence capabilities that will deter Russia.”

SAFE and the €21.3 billion second round

A few days earlier, on Thursday, October 29, the European Commission invited member states to take part in the second round of SAFE (Security Action for Europe), the defence loan instrument, with a budget of €21.3 billion. Member states are encouraged to include joint procurement with Ukraine in their investment plans and to prioritise the urgent needs of the Ukrainian armed forces and their own: air and missile defence systems, drones and counter-drone systems, ammunition and missiles.

SAFE’s long-term loans total €150 billion and were approved in May 2025. In November 2025 member states submitted their defence industry plans to the Commission, with some asking for lower amounts than originally agreed. So far the EU has approved the loan agreements of all 19 participating member states, and for 16 of them the Commission has already signed the agreements. It has disbursed almost €13.5 billion to 11 states that requested pre-financing. SAFE, a key element of the “Readiness 2030” initiative, aims to speed up investment in defence capabilities and strengthen European defence industry through cooperation and joint procurement.