UNCTAD: After the Hormuz closure, diesel rose about 83% in Nigeria but 9% in Ireland as developing economies pay the most

Developing economies have taken the hardest hit from the oil price shock that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new report from UNCTAD, the UN trade and development agency, as summarised by UN News on 4 November 2026.

The report says the impact at the pump has been far from equal. Diesel prices in Nigeria jumped by about 83 per cent between late February and the end of August, compared with nine per cent in Ireland. Gasoline rose by about 51 per cent in Myanmar, but only three per cent in Sweden. UNCTAD explains part of the gap by local conditions: taxes, subsidies, domestic pricing rules and exchange rates all shape what consumers finally pay.

From $70 to more than $120 a barrel

The price of Brent crude, the most widely used global benchmark, rose from around $70 a barrel in January to more than $120 in March, after the closure of a route that normally carries a fifth of the world’s oil. Prices eased between April and June while diplomatic talks progressed, then climbed again when negotiations collapsed and fighting resumed, the report notes. Futures markets suggest oil will stay expensive until the end of the year, keeping fuel and transport bills high for businesses and households.

Knock-on costs for importers

UNCTAD stresses that higher fuel prices spread through the whole economy, even to people who never buy fuel directly, because dearer diesel makes it more costly to move goods. Earlier research on developing economies, it recalls, found that a 25 cent rise in fuel prices per litre could reduce household purchasing power by more than five per cent on average.

Countries that depend heavily on imported fuel are particularly exposed. In 2023, net fuel imports, meaning spending on fuel minus earnings from fuel exports, amounted to a quarter of Cabo Verde’s GDP and nearly a fifth of Lebanon’s. A larger fuel bill leaves less money for food, medicines and equipment, and governments already under budget pressure have little room to shield households, UNCTAD says.

UNCTAD’s recommendation

The agency calls for more varied energy supplies and investment in affordable renewables to reduce exposure to future shocks. It argues that wind and solar power are not vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and cannot be depleted, and that in more than 90 per cent of cases renewables are cheaper than the cheapest new fossil-fuel alternative.

The situation in the Strait

The report comes as the Strait remains a daily flashpoint. Geopolitiki has reported the Revolutionary Guards’ claim that four tankers were destroyed by mines and are still burning, a claim attributed to the Guards and not independently confirmed here. On 25 October, U.S. Central Command said its commander flew over the waterway; our earlier article CENTCOM chief Adm. Cooper flies over Hormuz gives the figures the command cited at the time.