Cosmos 2612: US accuses Russian satellite at the UN of shadowing ICEYE-X36 in “behaviour consistent with on-orbit weapons operations”

The United States has openly accused Russia of deliberately and dangerously approaching a US-registered commercial satellite with its military satellite Cosmos 2612. The accusation was made on Wednesday, October 21 in the First Committee of the UN General Assembly, which deals with disarmament and international security, and immediately afterwards Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno repeated it publicly.

“Russia’s military satellite COSMOS 2612 is exhibiting threatening behaviour, deliberately manoeuvring dangerously close to a commercial satellite, behaviours consistent with on-orbit weapons operations,” DiNanno wrote. He added that this violates safety norms that have applied for years in low Earth orbit and that the US “will continue to ensure and defend America’s vital national security interests in space, from space and to space”.

The target was ICEYE-X36, a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite owned by ICEYE US, the American subsidiary of the Finnish ICEYE. The company provides imagery to Ukraine’s armed forces from part of its fleet. The same week Ukraine signed a letter of intent with Nokia and ICEYE for satellite communications under its own control.

A slow, methodical approach

On October 12, commercial trackers feeding the US military’s Joint Commercial Operations cell flagged that Cosmos 2612 had entered the orbit of ICEYE-X36, at an altitude of about 555 km. On October 15 and 16 the Russian satellite closed the distance from more than 320 km to about 5 km, then approached further and stayed close all weekend. LeoLabs, in a report shared with Air & Space Forces Magazine, estimates the minimum distance reached 500 metres and calls the episode a pre-planned approach operation requiring precise navigation and onboard sensors. The manoeuvres stopped abruptly on October 18 and 19.

According to LeoLabs, Cosmos 2612 showed capabilities that could be used to inspect, characterise, shadow or even interfere with another spacecraft, without this proving hostile intent. Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell assesses it as the first encounter of two active satellites in low orbit without one owner’s consent. ICEYE limited itself to saying it is aware of the situation, is monitoring it closely and that its network design ensures continuity and resilience.

In a CSIS discussion reported by Defense News, Clayton Swope said Moscow wants to show that “the West can’t stop me”, and did not rule out a “rehearsal” for a future attack or a weapon on the satellite, from a jammer to a laser. Greg Gillinger of Integrity ISR pointed out that on Wednesday Cosmos 2612 was again at the same altitude, about 400 km behind ICEYE-X36, and that in a few weeks Russian satellites from the same launch will align with the orbit of ICEYE-X37.

The episode came about a month after Air Force Secretary Troy Meink confirmed that the Space Force now has weapons in orbit. Europe, for its part, is strengthening its mechanism for responding to threats against satellites.