US Air Force says it needs 1,509 combat-coded fighters by 2035, with the F-35 at 40 percent of the fleet

The US Air Force estimates it will need 1,509 combat-coded fighters by 2035 to cover its missions at a “moderate” level of risk. The figure is in a new fighter force structure report sent to Congress on October 16, as Lt. Gen. David Tabor, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, explained to reporters at the Pentagon, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine.

F-35As would make up about 40 percent of the fleet in 2035, up from about 30 percent today. Another 20 percent would be F-22s and the sixth-generation F-47s that will replace them, with roughly as many F-47s planned as the 186 operational F-22s built. The remaining 40 percent would be split about equally between F-15s and F-16s. Without the A-10s, the fleet today is about 45 percent F-16, 30 percent F-35, 15 percent F-15 and 10 percent F-22.

The number is up from the 1,271 fighters of 2026 and the 1,369 target for 2030 in last year’s report. For a “low” risk profile the report calculates 1,723 fighters, against 1,558 last year, figures published by Breaking Defense. Tabor said the Air Force “generally does not plan for low risk”, and confirmed that buying new F-16s is being considered but is not “urgent”.

The report also calls for a change in how fighters are counted, based on lessons from the war with Iran. The target depends on congressional funding and on Lockheed Martin and Boeing delivering on time, and the report cites delays in F-35 modernisation and F-15EX production. The 2027 base budget includes 24 F-15EX and 24 F-35, with 14 more F-35s depending on a reconciliation bill that may not pass. The Air Force has said for years that it needs 72 new fighters a year. “Without the money, we won’t be able to do it,” Tabor said, adding that industry has assured it can deliver, and the service is asking Congress for multiyear contracts for the F-35 and F-15EX.

The F-35 is also at the centre of Greece’s own programme, with Athens seeking the most modern weapons from the United States for its fleet.