CENTCOM has a plan ready to strike Iran: three aircraft carriers and moonless nights, US officials say

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has a plan ready for a strike on Iran that could be put into effect as early as Wednesday, November 4, the day after the US midterm elections. The New York Times reported the information on Tuesday, November 3, citing American officials, and links it to the three US aircraft carriers currently in the region.

The existence of the plan does not mean a decision has been taken. President Donald Trump has not yet given the green light for a large-scale attack, while diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran continue. In the past Trump has called off operations that looked very close to execution; see also his interview with the Financial Times.

A narrow window and moonless nights

According to the paper, the operational window preferred by the military is short. One of the three carriers must return to its home port after early November, while the coming nights will be especially dark, without a moon, conditions that favour air operations.

In recent weeks the US has massed warships, fighters and bombers in the region for a possibly fairly short campaign of intensive strikes. The build-up itself, the report notes, can also act as leverage for diplomacy. Diplomats are trying to draft a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Tehran’s nuclear programme and postpone new military action. On the recent American strikes on Qeshm island, see our report on Qeshm.

Opinions inside the administration are divided. Some cabinet members want more time for sanctions and the American blockade, believing that economic pressure will eventually topple the regime. Other officials see no prospect of its collapse without new strikes.

Israel’s warning about chemical weapons

In the same report the paper says Israel has given the US intelligence that Iran is considering using chemical weapons against its adversaries. In discussions over the past two weeks with American intelligence agencies, senior Israelis presented the threat as even more urgent than Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, arguing that Iran is rapidly developing the technology to arm missiles with chemical agents or smuggle them into Israel or another country.

Reactions in Washington are mixed. Some officials took the warning seriously, given a series of warnings about Iranian preparations to attack American interests. Others see it as part of a pressure campaign by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to get Trump to resume major operations, and recall the flawed assessments on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction in 2002. Few in the American agencies doubt that Iran is developing chemical weapons; the question is whether its leadership would use them, especially if it is not attacked again.

Gulf officials, with whom Israel shared part of the evidence, are sceptical. A regional official told the paper that Israel presented assessments without proof and that Gulf governments did not take them seriously. Tehran, which in 2003 admitted that it had developed chemical capabilities in the Iran-Iraq war but said it dismantled them, denies having such weapons. Netanyahu’s office said Israel “is closely monitoring every threat” from Iran and is “ready to confront it”. These are claims by the parties and anonymous sources.

Alert for Americans in the Middle East

American agencies assess that the threat to Americans in the Middle East and elsewhere is at its highest level since the war began in February. Intelligence collection intensified after the disclosure of an Iranian plan to attack a base in Britain used by American fighters, and on October 23 a warning memo was sent to top administration officials. In Israel the army remains at maximum readiness for defensive and offensive operations, as the country tries to form a government after last week’s elections. The new US Senate and House take office on January 3, which leaves Trump several weeks with the current balance in Congress.