Qatar: Washington reportedly approved the draft deal with Iran, with answers expected within 36 hours; a senior Iranian official says an agreement is still far off

Qatar’s mediation to end the war between the United States and Iran is entering a critical phase. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said on Tuesday, November 3, that Washington and Tehran are studying the mediators’ proposals, and an official familiar with the talks told Reuters that responses from Washington and Tehran are expected within the next 36 hours. Meanwhile, unnamed sources told the newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the US approved the draft memorandum the Qatari mediators presented to Iran. A senior Iranian official, however, says the agreement remains far off.

What the sources say about the draft

The claim of Washington’s approval comes from unnamed sources in the Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, whose statements Anadolu relayed, and it has not been confirmed by either government. The draft was presented to Iran on Monday, November 2. The same sources said the mediating team briefed Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which also approved it. According to the paper, both sides have made concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme and on frozen Iranian assets. The sources claim Tehran will announce a retreat on its nuclear programme in exchange for Washington announcing the release of part of the frozen funds, and that the two announcements will be made simultaneously. The arrangements for a simultaneous announcement are under discussion, with first steps and an interim agreement that would open the way for new negotiations.

Al-Ansari showed cautious optimism. “If there were no glimmer of hope, there would be no negotiations and, as a mediator, we cannot lose hope,” he said, adding that there are “intensive joint regional efforts” to avoid escalation. Qatar is working, he said, on an interim agreement, and both sides remain committed to the process, with an “exchange of proposals in real time”. The Qatari delegation that went to Tehran on Monday evening has returned to Doha, but contacts continue. The draft has been under discussion for eight days and a new version of it was the subject of the talks in Tehran.

Iranian official: “Tehran’s conditions must be met”

A senior Iranian official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, said Iran and the US are still very far from a deal. “Tehran’s conditions must be met if the US wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” he warned, adding that Tehran will not accept Washington’s “excessive demands” and that nuclear talks can begin only after Iranian conditions are met. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the ball is in Washington’s court after Tehran’s “strong and reasonable response”. The Iranian side has proposed reopening the Strait within two days, with preconditions that include ending the war on all fronts, releasing Iranian assets, lifting oil sanctions and ending the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.

The diplomacy takes place under the shadow of tension. On the night into Tuesday the US carried out “defensive” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island, a US official said, targeting surface-to-air missiles used against American assets; see our report on the Qeshm strikes. Donald Trump told Fox News he does not want to kill many people but “if we have to, we will”. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian argued that a return to war would benefit no one; see his remarks on the powers the supreme leader gave the government for the negotiations.

The oil market reflects the swings: prices rose about 1.3 per cent on Tuesday, after falling more than 7 per cent on Monday, as hopes of diplomatic progress grew. The mediation intensifies ahead of the US midterm elections held on Tuesday, as the region fears the war the US and Israel started in February may flare up again after the vote. US Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that “some progress” had been made. On June 18 Washington and Tehran had signed a memorandum on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, whose implementation has stalled over disagreements about security in the waterway. Meanwhile Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks continue with Saudi Arabia on new regional security arrangements without foreign military involvement.