Economy & Energy
Russia: about 30% of refining capacity in the crosshairs of Ukrainian drones – how far real refining could fall – sources
Refineries hit by Ukrainian strikes since late October account for about 30% of Russia’s primary refining capacity, two energy sources told Reuters; real throughput could fall by up to 200,000 tonnes a day.
Refineries that have been hit by Ukrainian strikes since late October correspond to about 30% of Russia’s primary refining capacity. The calculation was made by two energy-sector sources speaking to Reuters in a report published on Tuesday, November 10.
In numbers, the units targeted by Ukrainian drones have a nominal processing capacity of about 300,000 metric tonnes of crude per day, close to 2.2 million barrels. The total primary capacity of the Russian refining industry is estimated at about 930,000 tonnes per day. In the last week alone, operating problems or emergencies were recorded at nine of the country’s 35 largest refineries.
The loss of nominal capacity does not translate automatically into an equal fall in actual output, since refineries rarely run at 100%. In late October Russian units were processing about 700,000 tonnes, or 5 million barrels, a day. The same sources estimate that the actual reduction could reach 200,000 tonnes a day, almost a third of the volume refined before the wave of attacks.
Which facilities have been hit
Among the affected facilities are three large refineries in central Russia, with reports naming Ryazan, Yaroslavl and the Volga region. The list also includes Kirishi, where the fire at the KINEF refinery followed a drone attack in the Leningrad region. Earlier there had been damage at a unit of the Yaroslavl refinery, while in the south the Ukrainian attacks reached the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Territory. How serious the damage is and when normal operation will be restored remains unclear.
The consequences are already visible in the domestic fuel market. Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, has reintroduced limits on fuel sales at its stations across the country. At the same time Moscow continues to channel diesel to international markets to meet its export commitments.
Kyiv escalated the attacks on the Russian oil industry in late October, when the ceasefire on energy infrastructure announced by U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that the strikes will continue in response to Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid, which is hit by missiles and drones almost every night.
In Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has put the blame for the failure of the ceasefire on Russia: “Of course we supported President Trump’s energy ceasefire, but we saw that Russia did not respect it. Not for a minute. On the contrary, it escalated.” The Commission is preparing the 22nd sanctions package and, as she said, no sanction will be lifted unless Russia stops the war.
