Middle East & North Africa
WSJ: US intelligence agencies estimate Iran still has up to 2,500 ballistic missiles, contradicting Trump’s claims
The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reports that Iran retains 1,500 to 2,500 ballistic missiles despite months of US and Israeli strikes, an assessment the officials describe as low-confidence.
US intelligence agencies estimate that Iran still has between 1,500 and 2,500 ballistic missiles, despite the American and Israeli strikes of recent months. The information was revealed by the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, November 14, citing American officials. The same officials describe the estimate as “low-confidence”, because it is hard to calculate how many missiles are in storage and how many are ready to launch. They acknowledge, however, that Tehran clearly retains the ability to carry out significant attacks on American forces and allies in the region.
The estimate contradicts statements by senior US officials, including Donald Trump, that Iran’s armed forces have been destroyed. The White House argues that the American Operation Epic Fury seriously weakened the Iranian military and that economic pressure further undermines the regime. Simone Ledeen, a former senior Pentagon official for the Middle East in Trump’s first term, told the paper that even 1,500 missiles would amount to more than half of Iran’s pre-war arsenal. Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst on the Iranian military, noted that even with all the classified information these estimates can be “extremely low-confidence”.
According to the officials, Iran is rebuilding its arsenal mainly with components it had stockpiled before the war, at a slower rate than before the war because of damage to production facilities. The strikes destroyed the entrances of underground depots, but satellite images show Tehran has regained access to some of them by digging. An Israeli official estimates that the missiles inside them most likely remained intact, while the Israeli army calculates that Iran has more than 1,500 ballistic missiles. “They are rebuilding, rearming,” an Israeli military official said. Iran also has a large number of drones and shorter-range missiles.
The size of the arsenal weighs on the discussion inside the Trump administration over whether to resume major operations against Iran together with Israel. For now the US president prefers economic sanctions and the naval blockade, and has told advisers that he may not strike Iran again if Tehran and the Houthis do not provoke the US. America’s Gulf allies are asking that the war not resume, fearing Iranian retaliation. Benjamin Netanyahu, by contrast, is pressing for new strikes. In his Veterans Day speech Trump said the US needs “total victory, not 93% victory” and that he would consider it a “defeat” if the regime is still in power when he leaves the White House.
The paper adds that Iranian missile and drone attacks have damaged American facilities, radars and early-warning systems. For that reason, according to American and Israeli officials, several US military assets have been moved preventively to Israel. Tehran has also improved its intelligence gathering and targeting, with help from Russia as well. Last week Bloomberg reported an intelligence assessment that Iran may be building about 50 ballistic missiles a month. The latest escalation can be seen in the Revolutionary Guards’ claims about the US radar in Bahrain.
