Economy & Energy
Iran’s oil minister resigns as Gulf exports recover, with 40% bypassing Hormuz
Iran appointed Hamid Bovard acting oil minister on October 4. Kpler estimates that other Gulf producers have restored prewar export volumes, with 40% bypassing Hormuz.
Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned on Sunday, October 4, and Hamid Bovard, chief executive of the National Iranian Oil Company, was appointed acting minister. Iranian state television carried the presidential office’s explanation that Paknejad had requested to leave for personal reasons. President Masoud Pezeshkian had previously declined his request but accepted it after the minister insisted, and thanked him for his service. Paknejad had held the portfolio since August 2024.
The change comes as the US naval blockade keeps Iranian crude exports close to zero. Other Gulf producers have restored exports to their prewar level, excluding Iran, while routing a much larger share around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Kpler’s estimates.
Forty per cent of exports bypass Hormuz
Kpler’s September export assessment puts minimum confirmed crude and condensate flows for September 1–28 at 16.5 million barrels a day. Hormuz carried 60%, or 9.9 million barrels daily; 23% loaded on the Gulf of Oman coast, mainly Fujairah, and 17% left via the Red Sea. In total, 40% bypassed the strait. Before the war, 83% used Hormuz.
The bypasses rely on Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline to Yanbu and Abu Dhabi’s pipeline to Fujairah. Kuwait, Qatar and most of Iraq lack an alternative route. More than 70% of August crude crossing Hormuz was transferred between ships off Fujairah or Sohar, using very large tankers operating roughly 16-day round trips. Iranian exports, averaging 1.7 million barrels daily before the war, have been near zero since the blockade resumed in July. Kpler’s figures cover crude and condensates, and its latest totals are minimum confirmed volumes.
OPEC+ holds production steady as tanker attacks continue
Seven OPEC+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — agreed on October 4 to keep November production requirements unchanged from September’s level. Their next meeting is scheduled for November 1. Brent remained above $100 a barrel on Monday morning, with the December-delivery contract at $102.25.
Attacks on merchant shipping continue. UK Maritime Trade Operations warnings recorded at least three tankers struck by unidentified projectiles in and around Hormuz on October 1–2. One report described a fire; another an outbound tanker suffering a small fire and blackout; a third a crude tanker hit on its port side four nautical miles east of Oman. UKMTO reported the crews safe and authorities investigating.
On the diplomatic track, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on October 4 that Iran was reviewing the US response to the proposal conveyed through intermediaries. Tehran would communicate its final position through the appropriate channel when ready, he said, while maintaining readiness for “other scenarios”. Iran has set seven conditions for reopening Hormuz, including an end to the blockade.
