Guterres warns of an “El Niño of war” as conflicts spread and inequality deepens

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Thursday that conflicts are not only intensifying but expanding, describing the situation as “an El Niño of war” in which “conflict is feeding conflict.” Speaking to reporters in New York ahead of a visit to Egypt, he linked the spread of wars to rising living costs and to the street protests seen in recent days in several European countries, according to the UN News account of his remarks.

Mr. Guterres said pressure is building “over the price of food, fuel and other basics,” that interest rates are up for both people and countries, and that for young people “the promise of a better future is slipping further out of reach.” He condemned the violence and destruction during the protests in France, Italy and elsewhere and said those responsible for criminal acts must be held accountable. At the same time, he argued that the legitimate grievances of peaceful protesters cannot be overlooked and must be understood as linked to the wider turmoil in the world.

How war spreads its costs

The Secretary-General compared the current moment to the El Niño climate phenomenon, which begins in one region but upends weather patterns thousands of kilometres away. In the same way, he said, the consequences of war “are travelling farther and faster.” He pointed to the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan as places where civilians and civilian infrastructure, including homes, hospitals, schools, airports, power stations and energy facilities, are deliberately coming under fire.

Those effects, he said, reach well beyond the battle zones, disrupting energy markets, shipping, supply chains and financial systems. They land on a world that was already unequal, he added, “where some can absorb higher prices, while others must choose between food and heat,” and where some governments can borrow cheaply to protect their people while others must choose between servicing debt and investing in health and education. “War does not create all these inequalities,” he said, “but it feeds and exploits them.”

Yemen, Gaza and the West Bank

Mr. Guterres said the answer “cannot be an ever-widening circle of confrontation, including in the Middle East.” On Yemen, he voiced concern over escalation around the city of Taiz and over continued Houthi attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, and appealed for restraint and political dialogue. Geopolitiki has reported on the latest of those attacks, including the Saudi Aramco evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, and on the European Parliament’s call to list the Houthis as a terrorist group.

On the Occupied Palestinian Territory, he said Israel is still severely restricting essential aid ahead of winter and that implementing the Security Council-backed Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict remains difficult. He said Palestinians in the occupied West Bank face daily attacks by Israeli settlers, and that journalists and diplomats are also being attacked. He appealed to donors for the UN World Food Programme, which he said urgently needs $450 million for its operations in Gaza and the West Bank over the next six months, and repeated the call for a two-State solution.

The Egypt visit

Mr. Guterres said his message in Egypt will focus on stopping the widening of war, protecting civilians and creating political space for diplomacy and peace. “People everywhere want security. They want dignity,” he said, adding that tackling inequality and ending the conflicts that are multiplying suffering and driving prices higher are two parts of the same task.

The war in Sudan, which he named among the conflicts hitting civilian infrastructure, was the subject of recent consultations in Geneva, covered in Sudan talks in Geneva: UN envoy seeks de-escalation as Switzerland calls the conflict a “drone war”.