Yemen: Murky picture on the Bab el-Mandeb coast as Houthis show combat capability; the ring tightens around Taiz

The picture remains murky on the Red Sea coast of south-western Yemen. According to information from the field, neither side has clear control of Dhubab, the area that overlooks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and both government forces and the Houthis withdraw from positions and return to them within a few hours. Footage from a beach near the strait shows forces aligned with the internationally recognised government firing from vehicles at Houthi fighters. Some of the fighters, who appear to be armed, are walking through the sea, while others are on the sand as the vehicle moves towards them.

The government, with air support from the Saudi-led coalition, has announced that it pushed the Houthis back from the areas around Bab el-Mandeb and took the port of Mokha. The Houthis reply that they still control the territory they seized in September and describe the government announcements as “fabricated heroics”. The real extent of the government’s gains has not been independently confirmed. Earlier claims about the advance towards the strait, which the Houthis denied, are covered in our report of October 5.

The Houthis hold the initiative

Despite waves of air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition and the government air force, the Houthis appear to have the upper hand in several of the ground clashes. The group has released video which, it says, shows strikes on government force positions along the west coast. In Sanaa, supporters gathered to declare their backing for the fighters on the front line.

In a post on X on October 7, the map account @Suriyakmaps wrote that over the previous 48 hours contradictions had emerged about the situation around Bab el-Mandeb: the “Sana’a forces” control Sheikh Said and the town of Al Ardi and carried out incursions into the Al-Azaf area, withdrawing afterwards because they were unable to consolidate their position. The account Yemeni Military Media (@MMY1444) posted, also on October 7, footage which it said showed the expulsion of Saudi concentrations of forces from the Al-Ma’afer and Al-Mawasit districts of Taiz governorate. Another account, IWN (@A7_Mirza), posted on October 6 that the media section of the Yemeni armed forces had released the second video in a series of “Shawaz” FPV drone operations on various fronts, in which, it said, operators destroy military vehicles and technical and surveillance equipment of what it called Saudi mercenaries. These are claims by the parties and their supporters and have not been independently verified.

A threat to the whole of Taiz

The ring is tightening around Taiz, the country’s third-largest city, and the Houthis are threatening to take all of it. Taiz, now fully encircled, links the Houthi-held north with the government-held south and the Red Sea coast, and whoever holds it controls the movement of weapons and supplies towards Aden.

The Houthis have massed forces in the province’s countryside and are attacking on several fronts, even inside the city, while the government army announces dozens of air strikes on the city’s outskirts. The UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has expressed concern about the escalation in Taiz and called on the Houthis to halt their offensive.

According to the International Organization for Migration, the new fighting has displaced more than 149,000 people, mainly from the governorates of Taiz and Lahij. The war returned to full scale in September, after almost four years of relative calm following the 2022 truce.