NATO’s 5% Target Explained: What It Means and Where Greece Stands

NATO’s 5% target is the pledge, made by all Allies at the Hague summit on 25 June 2025, to invest 5% of GDP a year in defence and security by 2035. At least 3.5% must go to core defence requirements and up to 1.5% to wider security spending. Greece, which has long spent more than most Allies, is on NATO’s own estimates one of five Allies already above the 3.5% line in 2026.

Key points

• The Hague Summit Declaration sets 5% of GDP by 2035: at least 3.5% for core defence and up to 1.5% for related security investment.
• The 5% replaces the 2% guideline agreed at the 2014 Wales Summit.
• NATO’s July 2026 data estimates core defence spending at 3.65% of GDP for Greece in 2026, up from 2.79% in 2025.
• NATO expects five Allies to meet the 3.5% guideline already in 2026 and the 1.5% guideline to be met by 17.
• The trajectory is to be reviewed in 2029.

What did NATO agree at The Hague?

In the Hague Summit Declaration, Allies committed to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence- and security-related spending by 2035. The text ties the pledge to Article 3 of the Washington Treaty and reaffirms the “ironclad commitment” to collective defence under Article 5. Our NATO Article 5 explained: what it covers and why Greece joined sets out that clause.

The 5% has two parts. Allies will allocate at least 3.5% of GDP a year, on the agreed NATO definition of defence expenditure, to core defence requirements and to meeting the NATO Capability Targets. They will submit annual plans showing a credible, incremental path to that goal. A further share of up to 1.5% can go to broader investment, which the declaration lists as protecting critical infrastructure, defending networks, civil preparedness and resilience, innovation and the defence industrial base.

The declaration also says Allies will count direct contributions towards Ukraine’s defence and its defence industry when calculating their defence spending, and that the trajectory and balance of the plan will be reviewed in 2029.

What counts as defence spending?

NATO defines defence expenditure as payments by a national government to meet the needs of its own armed forces, those of other Allies or the Alliance as a whole. According to the NATO page on defence investment, it includes pensions paid to military retirees, research and development, and the military component of mixed civil-military activities. War damage payments and civil defence are excluded. NATO adds that its figures can differ considerably from national budgets because the definitions differ.

Where did the 2% guideline come from?

At the 2014 Wales Summit, leaders agreed to commit 2% of national GDP to defence, a decision NATO says was taken in response to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and wider instability in the Middle East. Allies also agreed that at least 20% of defence spending should go on major equipment, including related research and development. The 2023 Vilnius Summit renewed the pledge as a floor of at least 2% of GDP, with the same 20% equipment benchmark, and said that more than 2% would often be needed. The 5% target is the next step on that path.

How much more is Europe spending?

NATO’s Defence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026), with a cut-off date of 3 July 2026, says European Allies and Canada increased their defence expenditure in 2025 by more than 19% compared with 2024, which it puts at over USD 90 billion in constant 2021 prices, or about USD 139 billion in nominal terms. NATO’s topic page gives the long view: the combined share of GDP of European Allies and Canada rose from 1.4% in 2014 to 2.3% in 2025.

The same publication estimates that five Allies already meet the 3.5% core guideline in 2026, that 17 meet the 1.5% guideline for defence- and security-related investment, and that five reach the overall 5%. It does not name the five in its summary, but its table of core spending shows which Allies are at or above 3.5% in 2026: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Greece.

The leaders’ decision was widely covered when it was taken, as this report shows.

Where does Greece stand?

NATO’s table shows Greece at 2.77% of GDP in 2024 and 2.79% in 2025 (estimate), rising to 3.65% in 2026 (estimate). The same table puts Greece at 3.66% in 2021 and 3.89% in 2022, so the 2026 estimate returns Greece to the levels of those years. NATO also records the annual real-terms change in Greece’s core spending as 33.17% for 2026 (estimate).

On the equipment benchmark, NATO’s breakdown puts equipment at 25.81% of Greek core defence expenditure in 2025 (estimate) and 37.65% in 2026 (estimate), against the 20% guideline set at Wales. The comparison table shows that spending in the Baltic states and Poland is rising faster still: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are estimated at between 4.92% and 5.33% of GDP in 2026.

The figures say nothing by themselves about how the money is used, and NATO cautions that its definitions can diverge from national budgets. Greek spending is also set against a wider security picture that Geopolitiki has covered, including Turkish claims in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. The NATO tables list Turkey, for comparison, at 2.33% in 2025 and 2.85% in 2026 (estimates).

What happens next?

Allies are to submit annual plans showing how they will climb towards 3.5%, and the declaration provides for a review in 2029 in light of the strategic environment and updated Capability Targets. NATO’s own data publication is updated every year, so the path of each Ally can be checked against the published tables. Our report on Secretary General Mark Rutte’s visit to Estonia covers the same theme: NATO’s Rutte in Estonia: defence spending above 5% of GDP and a new €10 million for PURL.

Sources: NATO, The Hague Summit Declaration (25 June 2025); NATO, Defence investment and NATO’s 5% commitment (updated 29 June 2026); NATO, Defence Investment of NATO Countries (2014-2026) (data cut-off 3 July 2026).