Congressional report: North Korea has material for up to 90 nuclear warheads, while Seoul answers the “soot” claim about its HGV

North Korea likely has fissile material for up to 90 nuclear warheads and may have assembled about 50, according to a non-governmental estimate cited by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS). The report, IF10472, titled “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs”, was updated on October 13.

“Over the past decade the DPRK has advanced its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, which has increased the threat Pyongyang poses to the United States, its allies in East Asia and US interests,” it says. The report quotes a US official from April 2026, according to whom “North Korea’s nuclear forces are increasingly capable of striking US territory and its missile forces can hit South Korea and Japan with nuclear or conventional warheads”. It also cites the report to the 9th Party Congress, which says that “the DPRK’s status as a nuclear state has been consolidated as irreversible and permanent”.

The numbers

• North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests at Punggye-ri since 2006, the last on September 3, 2017. According to the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the site has been restored and the country is “ready to conduct a seventh nuclear test whenever it chooses”.
• The DIA estimates Pyongyang has “10 or fewer” intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which could reach 50 by 2035.
• The new Hwasong-20, unveiled in October 2025, appears not yet to have been flight-tested.
• The report records ballistic missile tests in eight months of 2026, including the launch from Wonsan on October 3.
• According to the IAEA, uranium enrichment takes place at Kangson and Yongbyon, where, per the DIA director, Pyongyang is “likely building an additional enrichment facility”.

The report notes that in October North Korean state media announced the test of another unnamed medium-range ballistic missile, which they described as a “hyper-hypersonic strategic weapon system”. Some analysts assess that the country tested a Hwasong-11E-1 in September and in October a medium-range missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), while others consider HGV development still at an early stage.

The dispute over “soot”

On the same day South Korea’s defence ministry rejected a claim by Jang Chang-ha, head of North Korea’s Missile Administration, that the South Korean HGV may not have achieved hypersonic flight, because in photos its outer surface “was not stained with soot”.

According to Yonhap, the ministry replied that the vehicle has advanced thermal protection technology and that visible “soot” is impossible in hypersonic flight, adding that the military “plans to further develop the technologies for weaponising the HGV”. The first test of the South Korean HGV was carried out on October 8 by the Agency for Defense Development, as we reported in South Korea’s first HGV test.