Second US airlift to Israel ahead of possible strike on Iran: up to 16 C-17s with air defences to Ovda, open-source trackers say

The US airlift to Israel is entering a second phase. On the afternoon of Tuesday, November 3, open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts tracking air traffic recorded a new wave of at least six US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III aircraft. The aircraft are taking off from Fort Bliss, Texas, bound for Israel and carrying air-defence systems. According to the analysts, the picture points to the deployment of a whole Patriot battery and not a limited reinforcement. At the same time, a US aircraft carrier is moving towards the Middle East and Donald Trump is sending a message to Tehran. The information is unofficial and based on flight data.

A whole battery, not a minimum package

The account The Intel Frog considers that the new flights are connected to the earlier movement. In its estimate, what is being deployed in Israel is not merely a minimum engagement package (MEP) but a full Patriot battery. Another tracker, ArmchairAdml, writes that a second group of C-17s, which began moving to Biggs Army Airfield at Fort Bliss, is now also heading to Ovda air base in southern Israel. Once complete, the total will reach sixteen aircraft. The same tracker logged a flight from Pope Army Airfield in North Carolina to Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait, as well as two C-17s flying in the opposite direction, from Ali Al Salem to Davis-Monthan air base in Arizona.

Ten heavy transports at Nevatim and Ovda

The first airlift became known in late October. Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported that ten US Air Force transport aircraft landed at the Israeli air bases of Nevatim and Ovda in southern Israel. Their type was not specified, but they were most likely C-5M Super Galaxy, C-17 Globemaster III or both, as both can carry such heavy loads. They had come from Fort Bliss, where one of the largest air-defence stockpiles of the US armed forces is held. Other aircraft of the same mission landed in Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. A few days earlier the Wall Street Journal had written, citing two anonymous officials and flight data, that the US is sending a Patriot system from Texas to Israel. US Central Command (CENTCOM) did not respond to questions about the possible transfer. At least one THAAD system, deployed since October 2024, is already in Israel.

An Israeli source told KAN that the US and Israel are coordinating closely on Iran and are “preparing for whatever decision President Trump makes”, although no decision has yet been taken. US forces in the region are replenishing their weapons and munitions stocks, while a third aircraft carrier is heading for the Middle East and a Marine unit is expected to arrive in November.

The Roosevelt heads for CENTCOM

The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) carrier strike group appears to be approaching the Singapore Strait considerably earlier than estimated, as it heads for the CENTCOM area. The account IndoWatch OSINT, based on data from ADS-B Exchange and Flightradar, estimates the group is less than 850 kilometres from the Strait and will reach it in 24 to 36 hours. As an indication that the group is moving fast in the South China Sea, it cites a post by the SCS Probing Initiative about a UH-60 Black Hawk that took off south-west of the Spratly Islands. Two CMV-22B Ospreys, carrier delivery aircraft, took off in the morning from the Philippines, refuelled near Brunei and reached Singapore. The analyst assesses that these flights concern the carrier and expects the group to enter the Strait of Malacca by November 5.

Trump: “If we have to, we’ll have to”

The movements coincide with a new statement by Donald Trump on Iran, from his Fox News interview: “I’m not looking to kill lots of people, but if we have to, we’ll have to.” On the same subject, see our reports on the recent explosions on Qeshm island and on the threats from Iranian hardline outlets, which have named bases in Greece and Cyprus among possible targets.