Africa
Ethiopia: After Mekelle, fears grow of Eritrean and Egyptian involvement
Ethiopian federal forces took Mekelle on October 3 after more than a week of heavy fighting, but the TPLF says it will fight on, reports of Eritrean troops in northern Tigray add a regional dimension, and Egypt is lining up with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia.
Ethiopian federal forces have entered Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led alliance of armed groups withdrew from the city. Reuters reported that pro-government Tigray Peace Forces fighters and then the Ethiopian army entered the city on Saturday, October 3, after more than a week of heavy fighting that began on September 23. The fighting has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire. Geopolitiki has reported on the retaking of Mekelle and on the break in diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The federal army used air power and ground forces. After successive defeats around Alamata and Kobo, the insurgents pulled back into the countryside and say they will go on fighting. TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said his forces would confront the enemy on their own terms and wherever they choose. Fighting continues elsewhere in Tigray, while reports of Eritrean troops entering towns in northern Tigray add a regional dimension.
The Red Sea and the Renaissance Dam
The development recalls 2020, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared victory after taking Mekelle, only for the insurgents to regroup and for the war to continue until the Pretoria agreement of November 2022. Ethiopia is already fighting insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia. Analyst Hossamaldeen Ibrahim told Al Jazeera that Egypt regards the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and any move by the Ethiopian army towards the Red Sea, as a strategic threat, which is why it has aligned itself with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia.
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent (de facto in 1991, formally in 1993), and Abiy has made access to the Red Sea a strategic priority. Eritrea sees this as an existential threat, which makes the Horn of Africa one more front alongside an already turbulent Red Sea.
The New Alamein summit
On October 4 the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia met in New Alamein, Egypt, and committed to closer political and economic cooperation. The summit is not a formal military alliance, but the four countries share concerns about Ethiopia’s ambitions on the Red Sea and the Nile. Egypt is a close partner of Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean.
On October 1 Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled Eritrean diplomats, accusing Asmara of hostile acts. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic relations. The Associated Press reported that Eritrean troops had entered Adigrat and Idaga Hamus, which Asmara neither confirmed nor denied. Abiy, who was sworn in on Monday, October 5, for a new five-year term, told parliament: “Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea.” Eritrea is particularly concerned about the port of Assab.
